Eagles Preseason Preview and Predictions

It's not easy to write about what may have been the most explosive and interesting offseason for a single team in NFL history. But with all that has been said it's time to look into the tea leaves and try to figure out how the boys in green will fare when the season actually starts. First off to quickly recap:

The Upside

The Eagles just had an offseason that every NFL GM wishes he could pull off. Howie Roseman proved to be a worthy successor to Tom Heckert in spades. This offseason was the first of its kind in NFL history, featuring an incredibly short offseason combined with the relatively recent phenomena of unrestricted free agency and a salary cap. Continuing the practice of careful and disciplined cap management left the Eagles in the perfect position to exploit this opportunity. And exploit it they did, bolstering several positions, most notably the secondary and D-line. The rich got richer, taking an already strong team led by one of the league's top play making quarterbacks and transforming it from an upper tier team in its conference to a Super Bowl contender.

The Downside

The linebacking corps has question marks - young and possibly too undersized. Hopefully the additions on the D-line will make the linebackers better, as will a secondary that is the class of the league. Of greater concern is the offensive line. Lots of moves have been made, and it is happening in the one unit on the team where cohesion and unity are critical for success. The shortened training camp did not help any, and it showed up in the preseason game against Cleveland. If this unit does not come together everything comes apart. Not to mention that if this line fails to protect Vick properly, he'll be off and running and leaving every fan afraid that he will continue to end his runs down the field with a Super Dave Osbourne ending.

The Big Question

Playmakers win games, but depth wins championships. Look no farther than the 2007 Giants or how last year's Packers overcame all of their injuries to go on to win the Super Bowl. I've always argued that the biggest problem with Daniel Snyder's model of overpaying for the biggest name free agents is that in the salary cap era it never left him with enough money to pay the midlevel players that give the depth to support those superstars. Granted, Snyder and Vinny Cerrato were incompetent at evaluating personnel and overpaid for overrated players but they never paid attention to the rest of the team. Yes, the Eagles aren't the Redskins, but did the Eagles throw too much money at building the perfect luxury penthouse while neglecting the foundation of the building needed to support it? We'll know the answer over the next sixteen weeks.

Predictions

Last year was tough to predict, with far more questions than this season. I ever so boldly proclaimed that I wouldn't be shocked if the 2010 Eagles went 8-8, nor would I have been shocked had they gone 13-3. This year after looking at the team and the opponents on the schedule I think I can take a pretty good guess at how the regular season will play out. Let's break it down piece by piece by taking a stab at how the birds will do against each of the segments that the league schedule threw at them.

The Good (1-1)

As division winners the Eagles get to play the winners of the NFC North and South this season. This is immediate good news as it puts the wild card team of Green Bay off of the regular season schedule, and has the Eagles facing the Bears and the Falcons. I say that the Eagles split these two games. I think that on a long enough time line Andy Reid will remember how to beat the Bears. Unfortunately, on a long enough time line the ATL will remember how to beat the Eagles. This year is as good as any for both of these to finally happen.

The Bad (4-0)

Last year I complained that the schedule didn't do the Eagles any favors in throwing the NFC North and AFC South at them. This year the schedule was kind enough to grant the Eagles four games against the Western Athletic Conference NFC West. The Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals, and Rams are all still projects. I can see the Rams and the Cards putting up good fights, but even they are still outclassed against Philly.

The Ugly (3-1)

The schedule also gave the unbalanced AFC East to the Eagles. Miami and Buffalo are teams that the Eagles sometimes fall asleep on and get taken by surprise, but I don't see that happening this year. I see the Eagles winning one of the two games between the Jets & Patriots in a close slugfest, and the other ending with the Eagles getting decisively beaten, as in something like a 37-21 beating. I don't know which one will be which, and hopefully it will serve as a wakeup call game rather than one exposing whatever flaws may creep into the game plan this season.

The Division (4-2)

Looking at the rest of the division Eagles fans may see this as too conservative, but here is why I don't think so:

Cowboys (1-1) Dallas is a better team with Romo back and no Eagles fan needs to be told the value of having someone with the last name of "Ryan" running your defense.

Giants (2-0) Some injuries are tough to overcome, and essentially losing your starting secondary for the season will be too much for the G-Men

Redskins (1-1) Um, isn't Washington projected to be one of the worst teams in football, much less its own division? Yes it is, but look at the schedule. If the 'Skins manage to catch the Eagles napping in week 5, chances are that their week 17 rematch will be a critical game for the Eagles' playoff position. Hungry birds against a typically demoralized, dispirited end of seasons Redskins team will be easy prey for the Eagles. On the other hand, if the Eagles win the first game, there is a good chance that the Eagles' playoff slot will be locked up and the week 17 rematch in Philly will see all of the reserves playing the entire game. If nothing else, hopefully this will also keep away those a**hole Redskin fans who show up at the Rhino Bar for the Eagles/Skins game trying to start fights.

So there you have it. Before free agency started I was projecting 10-6, but after the moves I see a solid 12-4 team. And all I know is that I can't wait for this season to start. What do you think?

One other programming note - I won't be writing regularly on the Eagles on this site going forward, as I'm trying to focus it more toward politics and economics. Eagles commentary will be carried by Brother Bob's partner site, The Blog of My Master.